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Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Niger’s Agricultural Sector

Authors
/persons/resource/froehrig

Röhrig,  Felicitas
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/nele.gloy

Gloy,  Nele
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Loeben

von Loeben,  Sophie Charlotte
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Christoph.Gornott

Gornott,  Christoph
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Arumugam.Ponraj

Arumugam,  Ponraj
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Paula.Aschenbrenner

Aschenbrenner,  Paula
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/HyeRinLea.Baek

Baek,  Hye-Rin Lea
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Cartsburg,  M.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Chemura

Chemura,  Abel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Fodi,  B. I.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Habtemariam

Habtemariam,  Lemlem Teklegiorgis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Kaufmann,  J.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/Hagen.Koch

Koch,  Hagen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefan.Liersch

Liersch,  Stefan
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/sophia.luettringhaus

Lüttringhaus,  Anna Sophia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/lisa.murken

Murken,  Lisa
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

Neya,  O.
External Organizations;

/persons/resource/sebastian.ostberg

Ostberg,  Sebastian
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/schauberger

Schauberger,  Bernhard
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Shukla

Shukla,  Roopam
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Tomalka

Tomalka,  Julia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/Stefanie.Wesch

Wesch,  Stefanie
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

/persons/resource/michael.wortmann

Wortmann,  Michel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;

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Fulltext (public)

27268.pdf
(Publisher version), 23MB

27268_fr.pdf
(Publisher version), 30MB

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Citation

Röhrig, F., Gloy, N., von Loeben, S. C., Gornott, C., Arumugam, P., Aschenbrenner, P., Baek, H.-R.-L., Cartsburg, M., Chemura, A., Fodi, B. I., Habtemariam, L. T., Kaufmann, J., Koch, H., Liersch, S., Lüttringhaus, A. S., Murken, L., Neya, O., Ostberg, S., Schauberger, B., Shukla, R., Tomalka, J., Wesch, S., Wortmann, M. (2021): Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies in Niger’s Agricultural Sector, Potsdam : A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), 152 p.
https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2022.002


Cite as: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_27268
Abstract
Niger has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Niger: (1) agroforestry and farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees, (2) integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), (3) irrigation and (4) improved fodder management for livestock. The impact assessment includes climate projections based on two future emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydrological modelling on water availability, modelling and comparison of future yields of four dominant crops (sorghum, millet, maize and cowpeas) and an as-sessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, the four adaptation strategies suggested by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, cost-effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is projected to increase further in Niger, up to +1.3 °C (SSP1-RCP2.6) and +4.2 °C (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, in reference to 2004. The mean annual precipitation sum is also projected to increase until 2050 under both emissions scenarios, with a slight decrease in the interannual variability. In the second half of the century, this trend in precipitation is likely to continue (SSP3-RCP7.0) or decrease slightly (SSP1-RCP2.6), while the year-to-year variability would increase. Greater annual rates of groundwater recharge due to increasing precipitation amounts and higher annual mean river discharge are expected until mid-century. Sorghum yields would decline in general, by 20-50% (SSP1-RCP2.6) or 40-75% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, compared to 2005. Crop models hinted at an increase in the suitability of sorghum and millet, and no significant change for maize and cowpeas in Niger under both emissions scenarios. In addition, the potential for multiple cropping would de-crease from mid-century, limiting farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, the grazing potential is likely to decrease in the south and increase in the central regions of Niger, under SSP1-RCP2.6, while it is expected to increase in the whole country under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, risk-independent, with a medium to high risk mitigation potential, and can bring about various co-benefits. FMNR practice can be highly recommended, as the upscaling potential is high and the climate resilience of local livelihoods will be strengthened. ISFM can help to improve water use efficiency and benefit from positive environmental and social outcomes. Irrigation has a medium potential to improve livelihoods of smallholder farmers but is also a support-intensive adaptation strategy that needs to be carefully implemented in order to avoid overexploitation of local water resources. Lastly, improved fodder management, especially al-falfa production, contributes to building up resilience of livestock farming systems and affects women and youth employment positively. Gener-ally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can yield additional benefits and active stake-holder engagement as well as participatory ap-proaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation as well as development planning and investments in order to strengthen the climate resilience of the Nigerien agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers.