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  Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanović, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F. F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., Vliet, M. v., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., Yamagata, Y. (2017): Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). - Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 12, 4321-4345.

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Frieler, Katja1, Author              
Lange, Stefan1, Author              
Piontek, Franziska1, Author              
Reyer, Christopher P. O.1, Author              
Schewe, Jacob1, Author              
Warszawski, Lila1, Author              
Zhao, Fang1, Author              
Chini, L.2, Author
Denvil, S.2, Author
Emanuel, K.2, Author
Geiger, Tobias1, Author              
Halladay, K.2, Author
Hurtt, G.2, Author
Mengel, Matthias1, Author              
Murakami, D.2, Author
Ostberg, Sebastian1, Author              
Popp, Alexander1, Author              
Riva, R.2, Author
Stevanović, Miodrag1, Author              
Suzuki, T.2, Author
Volkholz, Jan1, Author              Burke, E.2, AuthorCiais, P.2, AuthorEbi, K.2, AuthorEddy, T. D.2, AuthorElliott, J.2, AuthorGalbraith, E.2, AuthorGosling, S. N.2, AuthorHattermann, Fred Fokko1, Author              Hickler, T.2, AuthorHinkel, J.2, AuthorHof, C.2, AuthorHuber, Veronika1, Author              Jägermeyr, Jonas1, Author              Krysanova, Valentina1, Author              Marcé, R.2, AuthorMüller Schmied, H.2, AuthorMouratiadou, Ioanna1, Author              Pierson, D.2, AuthorTittensor, D. P.2, AuthorVautard, R.2, AuthorVliet, M. van2, AuthorBiber, M. F.2, AuthorBetts, R. A.2, AuthorBodirsky, Benjamin Leon1, Author              Deryng, D.2, AuthorFrolking, S.2, AuthorJones, C. D.2, AuthorLotze, H. K.2, AuthorLotze-Campen, Hermann1, Author              Sahajpal, R.2, AuthorThonicke, Kirsten1, Author              Tian, H.2, AuthorYamagata, Y.2, Author more..
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ou_persistent13              
2External Organizations, ou_persistent22              


Free keywords: -
 Abstract: In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).


 Dates: 2017
 Publication Status: Finally published
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
PIKDOMAIN: Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities - Research Domain II
PIKDOMAIN: Sustainable Solutions - Research Domain III
PIKDOMAIN: Earth System Analysis - Research Domain I
eDoc: 7816
Working Group: Ecosystems in Transition
Working Group: Forest and Ecosystem Resilience
Working Group: Hydroclimatic Risks
Working Group: Land Use and Resilience
Working Group: Data-Centric Modeling of Cross-Sectoral Impacts
Working Group: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Population Dynamics
Working Group: Macroeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation and impacts
Working Group: Land-Use Management
 Degree: -



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Title: Geoscientific Model Development
Source Genre: Journal, SCI, Scopus, p3, oa
Publ. Info: -
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 (12) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 4321 - 4345 Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.pik-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/journals185